Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.