Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The average count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent official statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal better national safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen over these months is very notable,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest amount of murders were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel internal conflicts, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main elements of the President's security plan include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts warned that using homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer valid for assessing the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally problematic because it may obscure days when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.